The Center for Housing Policy and Design’s co-director Bill Fulton published an analysis of population growth in San Diego for the Times of San Diego. Read the excerpt below,
“The popular idea in San Diego these days is that we’re not growing – and if we are, it’s probably out in sprawly areas in the North and East County.
But new data from state demographers reveal the opposite is true. In the last three years, San Diego has added more population than any other county in the state except Riverside – and the vast majority of that growth has taken place in the city of San Diego.
First, a little context: After 170 years of unrelenting population growth, California – and San Diego – saw the first-ever decline in population during the pandemic. But starting in 2022, California’s population began to go up again. The increase hasn’t been big – about 100,000 persons per year, compared to historic growth of 400,000 to 500,000 per year – and some of it may well have been driven by Biden-era migrants. (We’ll have to wait for next year’s estimates to see how big a factor this is.) Statewide, population growth didn’t go up nearly as much in 2024 as it did in 2022 and 2023.
Not surprisingly, two-thirds of the state’s growth has gone to populous inland areas – Riverside County especially (which accounted for 20% of the state’s population growth in the last three years), but also San Bernardino County, the Central Valley, and Metro Sacramento.
The big surprise, however, is the San Diego region.
During this three-year period, San Diego added 43,000 residents, or about 12% of the entire statewide total. (By contrast, Orange County added 15,000 people, and Los Angeles County lost population during this time.)
The even bigger surprise is where in San Diego County all these folks went.
The City of San Diego accounts for 43% of the county’s population, and that level hasn’t changed since the 1990s. But during this three-year period, 72% of the county’s population growth occurred in the city of San Diego.
Between 2022 and 2025, the city added more than 30,000 new residents, pushing the population over 1.4 million for the first time ever.
San Diego isn’t the only city in the county adding population. Chula Vista added almost 5,000 people. And on a percentage basis, Lemon Grove, San Marcos, and Poway added even more than San Diego.
But the sheer numbers for San Diego are striking.
Few cities in California have been as aggressive in attacking the state’s crisis of housing supply and affordability as San Diego. The recent controversy over bonus ADUs is only one example. The city also permits density bonuses in some locations that are far greater than permitted under state law – so much so that many developers are saying they are not likely to opt-in to SB 79, the new state law that sets minimum density thresholds around major transit stations. And the city has engaged in significant streamlining for housing projects, by conducting necessary environmental review during community-level planning and eliminating planning commission and city council approval for most projects.”
